BetriX
Copa Paulista· Round 6LIVE

XV de Novembro

1-1

Estádio Barão de Serra Negra

União São João de Araras

Match analysis

Model generated

Not enough history to call XV de Novembro vs União São João de Araras

The model projects 1.73 goals for XV de Novembro and 1.35 for União São João de Araras, giving 46% for the home win, 25% for the draw and 29% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 0 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 3.08 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.

Across the last 1 meetings, XV de Novembro have won 0, União São João de Araras 0, with 1 drawn and 2.00 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 11%
  • Expected goals: 1.73 - 1.35
  • Clean sheet chance: XV de Novembro 26%, União São João de Araras 18%
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match
  • Only 0 completed matches available for this competition — not enough history to model this fixture.

Match result

1X2
XV de Novembro2.1746.0%
Draw4.0824.5%
União São João de Araras3.4029.5%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

3.08 expected

Home xG

1.73

Away xG

1.35

Total

3.08

Over 0.5
95%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
37%
Over 4.5
20%

Both teams to score

BTTS

62%

Yes

38%

No

XV de Novembro clean sheet

26%

União São João de Araras clean sheet

18%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XXV de Novembro or Draw1.4271%
X2União São João de Araras or Draw1.8554%
12Either team1.3375%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-1
    11.3%
  2. 2-1
    9.3%
  3. 1-0
    7.4%
  4. 1-2
    7.2%
  5. 2-0
    6.9%
  6. 2-2
    6.3%
  7. 0-1
    5.6%
  8. 3-1
    5.4%
  9. 0-0
    5.1%
  10. 0-2
    4.2%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Last matches

No recent completed matches for either side in the data available for this competition.

Head to head

Last 1 meetings

0

XV de Novembro

1

Draws

0

União São João de Araras

  • 22 Aug 26XV de Novembro 1-1 União São João de Araras

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.