BetriX
Portuguese Primeira Liga· Round 3LIVE

Sporting CP

1-0

Estádio José Alvalade

Alverca

Model's strongest readOver 3.5 Goals58.7% · fair 1.7032/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

Sporting CP favoured at 62%, in a high-scoring game

The model projects 2.60 goals for Sporting CP and 1.51 for Alverca, giving 62% for the home win, 17% for the draw and 22% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 44 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 4.11 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 78% and both teams to score at 71%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.

Recent form: Sporting CP have taken 13 points from their last 5 (WDWWW), scoring 16 and conceding 6. Alverca have 1 from 4 (DLLL), scoring 3 and conceding 9.

Across the last 1 meetings, Sporting CP have won 1, Alverca 0, with 0 drawn and 1.00 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 2-1 at 8%
  • Expected goals: 2.60 - 1.51
  • Clean sheet chance: Sporting CP 22%, Alverca 7%
  • Sporting CP rate materially stronger in attack
  • Model confidence is backed by 31/100 data quality

Match result

1X2
Sporting CP1.6261.8%
Draw6.0116.6%
Alverca4.6421.5%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

4.11 expected

Home xG

2.60

Away xG

1.51

Total

4.11

Over 0.5
99%
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
59%
Over 4.5
39%

Both teams to score

BTTS

71%

Yes

29%

No

Sporting CP clean sheet

22%

Alverca clean sheet

7%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XSporting CP or Draw1.2778%
X2Alverca or Draw2.6238%
12Either team1.2083%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 2-1
    8.4%
  2. 3-1
    7.3%
  3. 2-2
    6.3%
  4. 1-1
    5.8%
  5. 2-0
    5.6%
  6. 3-2
    5.5%
  7. 1-0
    4.9%
  8. 1-2
    4.8%
  9. 3-0
    4.8%
  10. 4-1
    4.7%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
Sporting CP13 pts / 15
WDWWW
16 scored6 conceded80% BTTS1 clean sheets
Alverca1 pts / 12
DLLL
3 scored9 conceded50% BTTS0 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 1 meetings

1

Sporting CP

0

Draws

0

Alverca

  • 22 Aug 26Sporting CP 1-0 Alverca

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.