Portuguese Primeira Liga· Round 3Tomorrow · 15:30 WAT
Vitória de Guimarães
15:30
Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Nacional de Madeira
Match analysis
Model generatedNacional de Madeira favoured at 56%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 1.36 goals for Vitória de Guimarães and 2.11 for Nacional de Madeira, giving 25% for the home win, 19% for the draw and 56% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 44 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
On goals, 3.46 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 64%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.
Recent form: Vitória de Guimarães have taken 3 points from their last 4 (LLWL), scoring 5 and conceding 9. Nacional de Madeira have 5 from 4 (WDDL), scoring 5 and conceding 5.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-2 at 9%
- Expected goals: 1.36 - 2.11
- Clean sheet chance: Vitória de Guimarães 12%, Nacional de Madeira 26%
- Nacional de Madeira rate materially stronger in attack
- Model confidence is backed by 29/100 data quality
Match result
1X2Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.
Goals
3.46 expectedHome xG
1.36
Away xG
2.11
Total
3.46
Both teams to score
BTTS64%
Yes
36%
No
Vitória de Guimarães clean sheet
Nacional de Madeira clean sheet
Double chance
Two outcomes coveredCorrect score
Most likely scorelines- 1-29.4%
- 1-18.1%
- 0-17.5%
- 0-26.9%
- 1-36.6%
- 2-26.4%
- 2-16.1%
- 1-05.1%
- 0-34.9%
- 2-34.5%
Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.
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Previous meetingsNo previous meetings found in the available data.