Espanyol
1-1
RCDE Stadium
Real Madrid
Match analysis
Model generatedEspanyol favoured at 37%, in a middling game
The model projects 1.30 goals for Espanyol and 1.26 for Real Madrid, giving 37% for the home win, 28% for the draw and 35% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 412 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
On goals, 2.55 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. That is close enough to a coin flip that the goals markets offer little edge either way.
Recent form: Espanyol have taken 7 points from their last 3 (DWW), scoring 6 and conceding 2. Real Madrid have 13 from 6 (DWWWLW), scoring 10 and conceding 5.
Across the last 1 meetings, Espanyol have won 0, Real Madrid 0, with 1 drawn and 2.00 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
- Expected goals: 1.30 - 1.26
- Clean sheet chance: Espanyol 28%, Real Madrid 27%
- Real Madrid rate materially stronger in attack
- Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match
Match result
1X2Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.
Goals
2.55 expectedHome xG
1.30
Away xG
1.26
Total
2.55
Both teams to score
BTTS52%
Yes
48%
No
Espanyol clean sheet
Real Madrid clean sheet
Double chance
Two outcomes coveredCorrect score
Most likely scorelines- 1-113.2%
- 1-09.6%
- 0-19.3%
- 0-08.3%
- 2-18.2%
- 1-28.0%
- 2-06.5%
- 0-26.1%
- 2-25.2%
- 3-13.6%
Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.
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Most recent firstHead to head
Last 1 meetings0
Espanyol
1
Draws
0
Real Madrid
- 22 Aug 26Espanyol 1-1 Real Madrid
Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.