BetriX
Spanish La Liga· Round 2LIVE

Espanyol

1-1

RCDE Stadium

Real Madrid

Model's strongest readAway or Draw (X2)62.9% · fair 1.5943/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

Espanyol favoured at 37%, in a middling game

The model projects 1.30 goals for Espanyol and 1.26 for Real Madrid, giving 37% for the home win, 28% for the draw and 35% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 412 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 2.55 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. That is close enough to a coin flip that the goals markets offer little edge either way.

Recent form: Espanyol have taken 7 points from their last 3 (DWW), scoring 6 and conceding 2. Real Madrid have 13 from 6 (DWWWLW), scoring 10 and conceding 5.

Across the last 1 meetings, Espanyol have won 0, Real Madrid 0, with 1 drawn and 2.00 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
  • Expected goals: 1.30 - 1.26
  • Clean sheet chance: Espanyol 28%, Real Madrid 27%
  • Real Madrid rate materially stronger in attack
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match

Match result

1X2
Espanyol2.7037.1%
Draw3.6127.7%
Real Madrid2.8435.2%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

2.55 expected

Home xG

1.30

Away xG

1.26

Total

2.55

Over 0.5
92%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
25%
Over 4.5
12%

Both teams to score

BTTS

52%

Yes

48%

No

Espanyol clean sheet

28%

Real Madrid clean sheet

27%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XEspanyol or Draw1.5465%
X2Real Madrid or Draw1.5963%
12Either team1.3872%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-1
    13.2%
  2. 1-0
    9.6%
  3. 0-1
    9.3%
  4. 0-0
    8.3%
  5. 2-1
    8.2%
  6. 1-2
    8.0%
  7. 2-0
    6.5%
  8. 0-2
    6.1%
  9. 2-2
    5.2%
  10. 3-1
    3.6%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

This is a Weekend Pass feature.

Unlock Weekend Pass

Recent form

Most recent first
Espanyol7 pts / 9
DWW
6 scored2 conceded67% BTTS1 clean sheets
Real Madrid13 pts / 18
DWWWLW
10 scored5 conceded33% BTTS3 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 1 meetings

0

Espanyol

1

Draws

0

Real Madrid

  • 22 Aug 26Espanyol 1-1 Real Madrid

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.