BetriX
Bundesliga· Matchday 1Sat, 29 Aug · 14:30 WAT

1. FC Köln

14:30

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Model's strongest readBoth Teams To Score68.1% · fair 1.4752/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim favoured at 44%, in a high-scoring game

The model projects 1.62 goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.88 for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, giving 34% for the home win, 22% for the draw and 44% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 320 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 3.50 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.

Recent form: 1. FC Köln have taken 5 points from their last 6 (LLDLDW), scoring 9 and conceding 14. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 11 from 6 (LWDWWD), scoring 10 and conceding 11.

Across the last 10 meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 2, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 5, with 3 drawn and 3.10 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 9%
  • Expected goals: 1.62 - 1.88
  • Clean sheet chance: 1. FC Köln 15%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 20%
  • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim rate materially stronger in attack
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match

Match result

1X2
1. FC Köln2.9833.6%
Draw4.4922.3%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim2.2744.1%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

3.50 expected

Home xG

1.62

Away xG

1.88

Total

3.50

Over 0.5
97%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
46%
Over 4.5
27%

Both teams to score

BTTS

68%

Yes

32%

No

1. FC Köln clean sheet

15%

Hoffenheim clean sheet

20%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1X1. FC Köln or Draw1.7956%
X2Hoffenheim or Draw1.5166%
12Either team1.2978%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-1
    9.3%
  2. 1-2
    8.6%
  3. 2-1
    7.5%
  4. 2-2
    7.0%
  5. 0-1
    5.6%
  6. 1-3
    5.4%
  7. 0-2
    5.3%
  8. 1-0
    4.8%
  9. 2-3
    4.4%
  10. 3-1
    4.0%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
1. FC Köln5 pts / 18
LLDLDW
9 scored14 conceded100% BTTS0 clean sheets
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim11 pts / 18
LWDWWD
10 scored11 conceded67% BTTS1 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

2

1. FC Köln

3

Draws

5

Hoffenheim

  • 21 Feb 261. FC Köln 2-2 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
  • 3 Oct 25TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 0-1 1. FC Köln
  • 11 Feb 24TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 1. FC Köln
  • 16 Sept 231. FC Köln 1-3 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
  • 22 Apr 23TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 1. FC Köln

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.