Bundesliga· Matchday 1Sat, 29 Aug · 17:30 WAT
Borussia Dortmund
17:30
Hamburger SV
Match analysis
Model generatedBorussia Dortmund favoured at 67%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 2.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.85 for Hamburger SV, giving 67% for the home win, 19% for the draw and 13% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 320 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
On goals, 3.02 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 51%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.
Recent form: Borussia Dortmund have taken 9 points from their last 6 (WWLWLL), scoring 10 and conceding 6. Hamburger SV have 7 from 6 (DWWLLL), scoring 8 and conceding 13.
- Most likely scoreline: 2-0 at 11%
- Expected goals: 2.17 - 0.85
- Clean sheet chance: Borussia Dortmund 43%, Hamburger SV 11%
- Borussia Dortmund rate materially stronger in attack
- Model confidence is backed by 100/100 data quality
Match result
1X2Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.
Goals
3.02 expectedHome xG
2.17
Away xG
0.85
Total
3.02
Both teams to score
BTTS51%
Yes
49%
No
Dortmund clean sheet
HSV clean sheet
Double chance
Two outcomes coveredCorrect score
Most likely scorelines- 2-011.5%
- 1-010.5%
- 2-19.8%
- 1-19.1%
- 3-08.3%
- 3-17.1%
- 0-05.0%
- 4-04.5%
- 2-24.2%
- 0-14.1%
Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.
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Most recent firstHead to head
Previous meetingsNo previous meetings found in the available data.