BetriX
Bundesliga· Matchday 1Sat, 29 Aug · 14:30 WAT

1. FSV Mainz 05

14:30

SC Paderborn 07

Match analysis

Model generated

Not enough history to call 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

The model projects 1.56 goals for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 1.34 for SC Paderborn 07, giving 43% for the home win, 25% for the draw and 33% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 320 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 2.90 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.

Recent form: 1. FSV Mainz 05 have taken 7 points from their last 6 (WLWLDL), scoring 9 and conceding 10. SC Paderborn 07 have 0 from 0 (), scoring 0 and conceding 0.

Across the last 1 meetings, 1. FSV Mainz 05 have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 0 drawn and 2.00 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 12%
  • Expected goals: 1.56 - 1.34
  • Clean sheet chance: 1. FSV Mainz 05 26%, SC Paderborn 07 21%
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match
  • One or both clubs have too few completed matches in the sample for a reliable rating.

Match result

1X2
1. FSV Mainz 052.3542.6%
Draw4.0324.8%
SC Paderborn 073.0732.6%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

2.90 expected

Home xG

1.56

Away xG

1.34

Total

2.90

Over 0.5
94%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Over 4.5
17%

Both teams to score

BTTS

58%

Yes

42%

No

Mainz clean sheet

26%

SC Paderborn clean sheet

21%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XMainz or Draw1.4867%
X2SC Paderborn or Draw1.7457%
12Either team1.3375%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-1
    11.6%
  2. 2-1
    9.0%
  3. 1-0
    8.5%
  4. 1-2
    7.7%
  5. 0-1
    7.2%
  6. 2-0
    6.7%
  7. 2-2
    6.0%
  8. 0-0
    5.6%
  9. 0-2
    4.9%
  10. 3-1
    4.7%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
1. FSV Mainz 057 pts / 18
WLWLDL
9 scored10 conceded67% BTTS1 clean sheets
SC Paderborn 070 pts / 0

No completed matches in the sample.

Head to head

Last 1 meetings

1

Mainz

0

Draws

0

SC Paderborn

  • 29 Feb 201. FSV Mainz 05 2-0 SC Paderborn 07

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.