BetriX
Bundesliga· Matchday 1Fri, 28 Aug · 19:30 WAT

FC Bayern München

19:30

VfB Stuttgart

Model's strongest readOver 3.5 Goals70.9% · fair 1.4158/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

FC Bayern München favoured at 72%, in a high-scoring game

The model projects 3.32 goals for FC Bayern München and 1.51 for VfB Stuttgart, giving 72% for the home win, 14% for the draw and 14% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 320 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 4.82 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 86% and both teams to score at 75%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.

Recent form: FC Bayern München have taken 16 points from their last 6 (WWDWWW), scoring 22 and conceding 9. VfB Stuttgart have 9 from 6 (DWDDLW), scoring 15 and conceding 11.

Across the last 8 meetings, FC Bayern München have won 6, VfB Stuttgart 1, with 1 drawn and 4.13 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 3-1 at 7%
  • Expected goals: 3.32 - 1.51
  • Clean sheet chance: FC Bayern München 22%, VfB Stuttgart 4%
  • FC Bayern München rate materially stronger in attack
  • Model confidence is backed by 100/100 data quality

Match result

1X2
FC Bayern München1.3872.3%
Draw7.2513.8%
VfB Stuttgart7.2113.9%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

4.82 expected

Home xG

3.32

Away xG

1.51

Total

4.82

Over 0.5
99%
Over 1.5
95%
Over 2.5
86%
Over 3.5
71%
Over 4.5
53%

Both teams to score

BTTS

75%

Yes

25%

No

Bayern clean sheet

22%

Stuttgart clean sheet

4%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XBayern or Draw1.1686%
X2Stuttgart or Draw3.6128%
12Either team1.1686%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 3-1
    7.4%
  2. 2-1
    6.7%
  3. 4-1
    6.1%
  4. 3-2
    5.6%
  5. 2-2
    5.0%
  6. 3-0
    4.9%
  7. 4-2
    4.6%
  8. 2-0
    4.4%
  9. 1-1
    4.1%
  10. 4-0
    4.1%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
FC Bayern München16 pts / 18
WWDWWW
22 scored9 conceded67% BTTS2 clean sheets
VfB Stuttgart9 pts / 18
DWDDLW
15 scored11 conceded83% BTTS1 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 8 meetings

6

Bayern

1

Draws

1

Stuttgart

  • 19 Apr 26FC Bayern München 4-2 VfB Stuttgart
  • 6 Dec 25VfB Stuttgart 0-5 FC Bayern München
  • 28 Feb 25VfB Stuttgart 1-3 FC Bayern München
  • 19 Oct 24FC Bayern München 4-0 VfB Stuttgart
  • 4 May 24VfB Stuttgart 3-1 FC Bayern München

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.