Championship· Matchday 5Sat, 5 Sept · 15:00 WAT
Burnley FC
15:00
Bristol City FC
Match analysis
Model generatedBurnley FC favoured at 70%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 4.15 goals for Burnley FC and 2.26 for Bristol City FC, giving 70% for the home win, 13% for the draw and 16% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 45 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
On goals, 6.41 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 95% and both teams to score at 88%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.
Recent form: Burnley FC have taken 7 points from their last 3 (DWW), scoring 11 and conceding 3. Bristol City FC have 8 from 5 (DLWWD), scoring 11 and conceding 9.
- Most likely scoreline: 4-2 at 5%
- Expected goals: 4.15 - 2.26
- Clean sheet chance: Burnley FC 10%, Bristol City FC 2%
- The two attacks rate close to level
- Model confidence is backed by 29/100 data quality
Match result
1X2Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.
Goals
6.41 expectedHome xG
4.15
Away xG
2.26
Total
6.41
Both teams to score
BTTS88%
Yes
12%
No
Burnley clean sheet
Bristol City clean sheet
Double chance
Two outcomes coveredCorrect score
Most likely scorelines- 4-25.2%
- 3-25.0%
- 4-14.6%
- 3-14.4%
- 5-24.3%
- 4-33.9%
- 5-13.8%
- 3-33.8%
- 2-23.6%
- 5-33.3%
Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.
This is a Weekend Pass feature.
Unlock Weekend PassRecent form
Most recent firstHead to head
Previous meetingsNo previous meetings found in the available data.