BetriX
Championship· Matchday 3Fri, 28 Aug · 20:00 WAT

Wrexham AFC

20:00

Birmingham City FC

Model's strongest readAway or Draw (X2)60.1% · fair 1.6645/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

Wrexham AFC favoured at 40%, in a middling game

The model projects 1.42 goals for Wrexham AFC and 1.21 for Birmingham City FC, giving 40% for the home win, 30% for the draw and 30% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 580 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 2.63 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 55%. That is close enough to a coin flip that the goals markets offer little edge either way.

Recent form: Wrexham AFC have taken 9 points from their last 6 (DDDLWW), scoring 8 and conceding 7. Birmingham City FC have 10 from 6 (DDDWWD), scoring 8 and conceding 6.

Across the last 2 meetings, Wrexham AFC have won 0, Birmingham City FC 1, with 1 drawn and 2.00 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 14%
  • Expected goals: 1.42 - 1.21
  • Clean sheet chance: Wrexham AFC 30%, Birmingham City FC 24%
  • Wrexham AFC rate materially stronger in attack
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match

Match result

1X2
Wrexham AFC2.5139.9%
Draw3.3629.8%
Birmingham City FC3.2930.4%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

2.63 expected

Home xG

1.42

Away xG

1.21

Total

2.63

Over 0.5
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Over 4.5
13%

Both teams to score

BTTS

55%

Yes

45%

No

Wrexham clean sheet

30%

Birmingham clean sheet

24%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XWrexham or Draw1.4470%
X2Birmingham or Draw1.6660%
12Either team1.4270%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-1
    14.2%
  2. 0-0
    9.0%
  3. 2-1
    8.8%
  4. 1-0
    8.3%
  5. 1-2
    7.5%
  6. 2-0
    7.2%
  7. 0-1
    6.9%
  8. 2-2
    5.3%
  9. 0-2
    5.3%
  10. 3-1
    4.1%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
Wrexham AFC9 pts / 18
DDDLWW
8 scored7 conceded67% BTTS2 clean sheets
Birmingham City FC10 pts / 18
DDDWWD
8 scored6 conceded83% BTTS1 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 2 meetings

0

Wrexham

1

Draws

1

Birmingham

  • 12 Apr 26Birmingham City FC 2-0 Wrexham AFC
  • 3 Oct 25Wrexham AFC 1-1 Birmingham City FC

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.