BetriX
Premier League· Matchday 1Tomorrow · 16:30 WAT

Newcastle United FC

16:30

Liverpool FC

Model's strongest readBoth Teams To Score63.7% · fair 1.5748/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

Newcastle United FC favoured at 40%, in a high-scoring game

The model projects 1.63 goals for Newcastle United FC and 1.49 for Liverpool FC, giving 40% for the home win, 26% for the draw and 34% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 387 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 3.12 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 64%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.

Recent form: Newcastle United FC have taken 7 points from their last 6 (LWDWLL), scoring 8 and conceding 8. Liverpool FC have 8 from 6 (DLDLWW), scoring 11 and conceding 11.

Across the last 9 meetings, Newcastle United FC have won 0, Liverpool FC 8, with 1 drawn and 3.67 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 12%
  • Expected goals: 1.63 - 1.49
  • Clean sheet chance: Newcastle United FC 23%, Liverpool FC 20%
  • The two attacks rate close to level
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match

Match result

1X2
Newcastle United FC2.5239.8%
Draw3.7826.5%
Liverpool FC2.9633.8%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

3.12 expected

Home xG

1.63

Away xG

1.49

Total

3.12

Over 0.5
94%
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Over 4.5
21%

Both teams to score

BTTS

64%

Yes

36%

No

Newcastle clean sheet

23%

Liverpool clean sheet

20%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XNewcastle or Draw1.5166%
X2Liverpool or Draw1.6660%
12Either team1.3674%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-1
    12.1%
  2. 2-1
    8.7%
  3. 1-2
    8.0%
  4. 2-2
    6.5%
  5. 2-0
    5.9%
  6. 0-0
    5.8%
  7. 1-0
    5.8%
  8. 0-1
    5.2%
  9. 0-2
    4.9%
  10. 3-1
    4.7%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
Newcastle United FC7 pts / 18
LWDWLL
8 scored8 conceded67% BTTS0 clean sheets
Liverpool FC8 pts / 18
DLDLWW
11 scored11 conceded100% BTTS0 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 9 meetings

0

Newcastle

1

Draws

8

Liverpool

  • 31 Jan 26Liverpool FC 4-1 Newcastle United FC
  • 25 Aug 25Newcastle United FC 2-3 Liverpool FC
  • 26 Feb 25Liverpool FC 2-0 Newcastle United FC
  • 4 Dec 24Newcastle United FC 3-3 Liverpool FC
  • 1 Jan 24Liverpool FC 4-2 Newcastle United FC

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.