Ligue 1· Matchday 3Sat, 5 Sept · 19:45 WAT
OGC Nice
19:45
Le Mans FC
Match analysis
Model generatedNot enough history to call OGC Nice vs Le Mans FC
The model projects 1.37 goals for OGC Nice and 1.45 for Le Mans FC, giving 35% for the home win, 27% for the draw and 38% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 331 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
On goals, 2.81 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 58%. That is close enough to a coin flip that the goals markets offer little edge either way.
Recent form: OGC Nice have taken 5 points from their last 6 (DDLDDD), scoring 3 and conceding 4. Le Mans FC have 2 from 2 (DD), scoring 4 and conceding 4.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 13%
- Expected goals: 1.37 - 1.45
- Clean sheet chance: OGC Nice 24%, Le Mans FC 25%
- Le Mans FC rate materially stronger in attack
- Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match
- One or both clubs have too few completed matches in the sample for a reliable rating.
Match result
1X2Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.
Goals
2.81 expectedHome xG
1.37
Away xG
1.45
Total
2.81
Both teams to score
BTTS58%
Yes
42%
No
Nice clean sheet
Le Mans clean sheet
Double chance
Two outcomes coveredCorrect score
Most likely scorelines- 1-112.8%
- 1-28.6%
- 2-18.1%
- 0-17.7%
- 1-07.3%
- 0-06.9%
- 0-26.3%
- 2-25.9%
- 2-05.6%
- 1-34.1%
Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.
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Most recent firstHead to head
Previous meetingsNo previous meetings found in the available data.