BetriX
Ligue 1· Matchday 3Sat, 5 Sept · 19:45 WAT

Le Havre AC

19:45

Stade Brestois 29

Model's strongest readUnder 2.5 Goals56.6% · fair 1.7743/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

Le Havre AC favoured at 42%, in a middling game

The model projects 1.34 goals for Le Havre AC and 1.07 for Stade Brestois 29, giving 42% for the home win, 29% for the draw and 29% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 331 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 2.41 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 50%. This projects as a cagey afternoon; the unders look the more solid side of the market.

Recent form: Le Havre AC have taken 7 points from their last 6 (WLDDDD), scoring 9 and conceding 8. Stade Brestois 29 have 3 from 6 (DDLLLD), scoring 7 and conceding 13.

Across the last 6 meetings, Le Havre AC have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 5, with 0 drawn and 1.67 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 14%
  • Expected goals: 1.34 - 1.07
  • Clean sheet chance: Le Havre AC 34%, Stade Brestois 29 26%
  • Stade Brestois 29 rate materially stronger in attack
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match

Match result

1X2
Le Havre AC2.3941.9%
Draw3.4129.3%
Stade Brestois 293.4728.8%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

2.41 expected

Home xG

1.34

Away xG

1.07

Total

2.41

Over 0.5
90%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
22%
Over 4.5
10%

Both teams to score

BTTS

50%

Yes

50%

No

Le Havre clean sheet

34%

Brest clean sheet

26%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XLe Havre or Draw1.4071%
X2Brest or Draw1.7258%
12Either team1.4171%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-1
    13.9%
  2. 1-0
    11.0%
  3. 0-0
    10.0%
  4. 2-1
    8.6%
  5. 0-1
    8.6%
  6. 2-0
    8.1%
  7. 1-2
    6.9%
  8. 0-2
    5.1%
  9. 2-2
    4.6%
  10. 3-1
    3.9%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
Le Havre AC7 pts / 18
WLDDDD
9 scored8 conceded67% BTTS1 clean sheets
Stade Brestois 293 pts / 18
DDLLLD
7 scored13 conceded67% BTTS0 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 6 meetings

1

Le Havre

0

Draws

5

Brest

  • 8 Mar 26Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre AC
  • 29 Oct 25Le Havre AC 1-0 Stade Brestois 29
  • 26 Jan 25Le Havre AC 0-1 Stade Brestois 29
  • 6 Oct 24Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre AC
  • 3 Mar 24Stade Brestois 29 1-0 Le Havre AC

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.