Serie A· Matchday 3Sat, 5 Sept · 17:00 WAT
FC Internazionale Milano
17:00
SSC Napoli
Match analysis
Model generatedFC Internazionale Milano favoured at 50%, in a high-scoring game
The model projects 1.74 goals for FC Internazionale Milano and 1.22 for SSC Napoli, giving 50% for the home win, 23% for the draw and 27% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 403 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
On goals, 2.96 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 58%. The shape of the game favours backing goals rather than sitting on a result.
Recent form: FC Internazionale Milano have taken 12 points from their last 6 (WDDWWD), scoring 15 and conceding 7. SSC Napoli have 13 from 6 (WWWWLD), scoring 10 and conceding 3.
- Most likely scoreline: 1-1 at 11%
- Expected goals: 1.74 - 1.22
- Clean sheet chance: FC Internazionale Milano 30%, SSC Napoli 18%
- FC Internazionale Milano rate materially stronger in attack
- Model confidence is backed by 100/100 data quality
Match result
1X2Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.
Goals
2.96 expectedHome xG
1.74
Away xG
1.22
Total
2.96
Both teams to score
BTTS58%
Yes
42%
No
Inter clean sheet
Napoli clean sheet
Double chance
Two outcomes coveredCorrect score
Most likely scorelines- 1-110.9%
- 2-19.6%
- 1-09.1%
- 2-07.9%
- 1-26.7%
- 0-16.4%
- 2-25.8%
- 3-15.6%
- 0-05.1%
- 3-04.6%
Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.
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Most recent firstHead to head
Previous meetingsNo previous meetings found in the available data.