BetriX
Serie A· Matchday 3Sat, 5 Sept · 19:45 WAT

AS Roma

19:45

Atalanta BC

Model's strongest readUnder 2.5 Goals58.2% · fair 1.7244/100 confidence

Match analysis

Model generated

AS Roma favoured at 46%, in a middling game

The model projects 1.37 goals for AS Roma and 0.98 for Atalanta BC, giving 46% for the home win, 27% for the draw and 27% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 403 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.

On goals, 2.35 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 47%. This projects as a cagey afternoon; the unders look the more solid side of the market.

Recent form: AS Roma have taken 16 points from their last 6 (WWWWWD), scoring 14 and conceding 3. Atalanta BC have 6 from 6 (DLWDLD), scoring 7 and conceding 8.

Across the last 10 meetings, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta BC 6, with 2 drawn and 2.40 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.

  • Most likely scoreline: 1-0 at 13%
  • Expected goals: 1.37 - 0.98
  • Clean sheet chance: AS Roma 37%, Atalanta BC 25%
  • AS Roma rate materially stronger in attack
  • Outcome spread is near-uniform — this is a genuinely open match

Match result

1X2
AS Roma2.1845.8%
Draw3.6927.1%
Atalanta BC3.6927.1%

Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.

Goals

2.35 expected

Home xG

1.37

Away xG

0.98

Total

2.35

Over 0.5
91%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
21%
Over 4.5
9%

Both teams to score

BTTS

47%

Yes

53%

No

Roma clean sheet

37%

Atalanta clean sheet

25%

Double chance

Two outcomes covered
1XRoma or Draw1.3773%
X2Atalanta or Draw1.8554%
12Either team1.3773%

Correct score

Most likely scorelines
  1. 1-0
    13.1%
  2. 1-1
    12.7%
  3. 0-1
    9.5%
  4. 0-0
    9.4%
  5. 2-0
    8.9%
  6. 2-1
    8.8%
  7. 1-2
    6.3%
  8. 0-2
    4.6%
  9. 2-2
    4.3%
  10. 3-0
    4.1%

Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.

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Recent form

Most recent first
AS Roma16 pts / 18
WWWWWD
14 scored3 conceded33% BTTS4 clean sheets
Atalanta BC6 pts / 18
DLWDLD
7 scored8 conceded67% BTTS1 clean sheets

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

2

Roma

2

Draws

6

Atalanta

  • 18 Apr 26AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta BC
  • 3 Jan 26Atalanta BC 1-0 AS Roma
  • 12 May 25Atalanta BC 2-1 AS Roma
  • 2 Dec 24AS Roma 0-2 Atalanta BC
  • 12 May 24Atalanta BC 2-1 AS Roma

Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.