Serie A· Matchday 3Fri, 4 Sept · 19:45 WAT
Genoa CFC
19:45
Como 1907
Match analysis
Model generatedComo 1907 favoured at 56%, in a middling game
The model projects 0.83 goals for Genoa CFC and 1.61 for Como 1907, giving 19% for the home win, 25% for the draw and 56% for the away win. Those rates come from attack and defence ratings fitted to 403 completed matches in this competition, weighted so recent results count for more.
On goals, 2.44 expected in total puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 45%. This projects as a cagey afternoon; the unders look the more solid side of the market.
Recent form: Genoa CFC have taken 2 points from their last 6 (LLLDDL), scoring 1 and conceding 7. Como 1907 have 14 from 6 (DWWWDW), scoring 9 and conceding 2.
Across the last 4 meetings, Genoa CFC have won 0, Como 1907 2, with 2 drawn and 1.75 goals a game. Head-to-head is a small sample and the model treats it as context, not evidence.
- Most likely scoreline: 0-1 at 14%
- Expected goals: 0.83 - 1.61
- Clean sheet chance: Genoa CFC 20%, Como 1907 44%
- Como 1907 rate materially stronger in attack
- Model confidence is backed by 100/100 data quality
Match result
1X2Odds shown are the model's fair price — what the bet would be worth with no bookmaker margin attached.
Goals
2.44 expectedHome xG
0.83
Away xG
1.61
Total
2.44
Both teams to score
BTTS45%
Yes
55%
No
Genoa clean sheet
Como 1907 clean sheet
Double chance
Two outcomes coveredCorrect score
Most likely scorelines- 0-114.1%
- 1-111.5%
- 0-211.3%
- 1-29.4%
- 0-08.6%
- 1-07.3%
- 0-36.1%
- 1-35.0%
- 2-14.8%
- 2-23.9%
Correct score is a long shot by nature — even the likeliest scoreline here is well under evens.
This is a Weekend Pass feature.
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Most recent firstHead to head
Last 4 meetings0
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Como 1907
- 26 Apr 26Genoa CFC 0-2 Como 1907
- 15 Sept 25Como 1907 1-1 Genoa CFC
- 27 Apr 25Como 1907 1-0 Genoa CFC
- 7 Nov 24Genoa CFC 1-1 Como 1907
Head-to-head is context, not evidence. Squads turn over, and five meetings is far too small a sample to move a probability on its own — the model treats it that way.